As global mobility trends for 2025 emerge, reviewing the expatriation landscape of 2024 is insightful. Which countries exhibited the strongest economic performance? What implications does this have for both current and potential expatriates?
OECD: Growth forecasts revised upwards
The latest report from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) offers a more optimistic outlook than initially expected. Global growth is now projected to rise by 3.2%, an improvement from the earlier forecast of 3.1% in May. This growth rate is expected to remain steady into 2025.
Strengths and weaknesses of major economic powers
India tops the global economic performance chart with an impressive growth estimate of 6.7% for 2024. Other G20 countries also display robust growth, with Indonesia at 5.1%, Brazil at 2.9%, Spain at 2.8%, the United States at 2.6%, and South Korea at 2.5%, aligning with the global average growth rate of 3.2%.
In contrast, the Eurozone is experiencing challenges, growing at just 0.7%. In the second quarter of 2024, Ireland, Estonia, and Finland faced recessions with GDP declines of -4.1%, -1.3%, and -1.3%, respectively. Germany's economic growth is nearly stagnant at 0.1% of GDP, while Italy marginally outperforms Eurozone forecasts with 0.8% growth. France achieved a growth rate of 1.1%, partly boosted by the economic benefits of hosting the Olympics. Spain, along with Poland, Slovakia, Greece, and Bulgaria, all report growth rates above 2%. Germany received a cautionary note from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on October 21, highlighting concerns over its continued mild recession from 2023, with a particular emphasis on Berlin over France.
In Europe, the United Kingdom stands out positively. Not part of the Eurozone or the EU, the UK has revised its growth forecast up to 1.1% from an earlier estimate of 0.4% in May 2024. The UK has rebounded more quickly from its mild late-2023 recession than Germany, Italy, and Japan, which still grapple with recessions of -0.1% GDP. This positions the UK as second among the developed G7 nations. However, inflation remains a concern, with London experiencing the highest rates, contrasting with declining inflation in other major economies.
Should we worry about layoffs in cutting-edge sectors?
Despite solid growth, the United States continues to face a series of layoffs in the tech sector, a field that remains dynamic and highly attractive to international talent. In February, American company Cisco laid off 4,000 employees, and a new social plan was announced in August. Intel is set to cut 16,000 jobs by the end of the year, and Dell plans to reduce its global workforce by 10%, which amounts to about 12,500 employees. The GAFAM group—Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple, Microsoft—and other major tech firms have also experienced layoffs in the US and their international offices. The layoffs during 2022 and 2023 were largely attributed to a post-Covid decrease in demand. However, this year, advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) are posing a significant threat to employment, impacting even roles traditionally considered less vulnerable to automation. Various professions in retail, communication, marketing, and accounting now find themselves in competition with AI technologies.
Crisis in the automotive sector
The automotive sector remains a critical area of concern, especially in Europe, where major manufacturers and their suppliers are experiencing significant setbacks. In the first half of 2024 alone, 32,000 layoffs were announced. The German automotive giant Volkswagen has disclosed the closure of three factories in Germany, along with the termination of a job security measure that had protected employees from economic layoffs for 30 years. Additional factories are set to be "downsized" to align more closely with market demands, placing thousands of jobs at risk. Other major players such as BMW, Audi, and Japan's Nissan have also unveiled social restructuring plans. French automaker Stellantis (formerly Peugeot) cut 200 jobs at the start of 2024 and plans to further reduce 1,100 jobs in 2025.
Overall, the European automotive industry has struggled to rebound to its pre-pandemic performance levels. Conversely, the automotive sector in China appears more resilient, bolstered by support from Beijing and continuing to attract foreign talent. In reaction, the EU has raised taxes on electric vehicles.
The spike in energy costs in Europe, more severe than in Asia and North America, has financially strained manufacturers. Additionally, the automotive market is contracting in China, which had been a significant consumer of European cars, especially German ones. However, China is offsetting this by increasing exports of electric vehicles. Complicating matters, Europe is also transitioning to electric vehicles, but its car sales are declining, whereas sales of Chinese and American electric cars are on the rise.
What do these economic trends mean for prospective expats?
Where should you move in 2025? Despite crises in cutting-edge sectors, international recruitment has not ceased. In fact, prime expatriate destinations continue to seek highly skilled personnel, highlighting the crux of global competition. With advancements in AI and newly enacted immigration policies, prospective expatriates are advised to enhance their skills for career opportunities abroad.
While GDP provides a snapshot of a country's economic growth, it alone is not sufficient. Expats and future expats should also closely monitor international labor market trends. Is their sector actively recruiting? According to OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann, the global economy is poised for a rebound amid decreasing inflation and strong trade growth. Economic growth is increasingly driven by the service sector, which is expected to gain momentum in 2025, while the manufacturing industry may continue to face challenges.
Will 2025 begin with labor shortages, too? The OECD observes a global decline in job vacancies, particularly in major immigration hubs like Canada, the United States, and Australia. This trend testifies to the effectiveness of immigration in bolstering the workforce, credited largely to an increase in foreign workers in these countries.
However, the drop in job vacancies does not signal the end of international mobility; rather, it signifies a shift towards targeting highly qualified foreign workers. This strategic focus is being adopted by several countries, including Australia, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and New Zealand.
What sectors will face labor shortages in 2025?
Looking ahead to 2025, several sectors will continue to face shortages, particularly those requiring qualified and highly skilled professionals. In Norway, for example, there will be significant needs in key fields such as information technology (IT), healthcare, engineering, renewable energy, construction, tourism, and education. Specifically in education, there is a high demand for teachers specialized in mathematics and physical-chemical sciences.
European Union countries will also maintain their drive to attract foreign talent in 2025, even amidst "anti-immigration" sentiments in countries like Italy and Spain, both of which are expected to lose about 30% of their young workforce. This demographic shift underscores a broader European demand for highly skilled young expatriates, with sector needs similar to those in Norway reflected across other major global powers.
The IT sector globally continues to see robust demand due to its critical role across various industries, including aeronautics, chemistry, energy, and luxury—all dynamic fields that are challenged by recruitment difficulties. The industrial sector, particularly in countries like France, which are pushing massive reindustrialization plans, also struggles to attract the necessary cutting-edge talent, especially in IT and emerging professions.
Moreover, there is a growing demand for professionals in new AI and technology-related fields. Expertise in cybersecurity, AI, and digital marketing remains highly sought after, indicating a sustained interest in specialists within these rapidly advancing areas in 2025.
