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I agree with you. That problem exists not only for expats but locals too... The south bank of Lisbon is (still) much cheaper

The best advert that i've seen in regards to teal estate ( and applicable to this thread also ) "don't wait to buy, buy and wait "

Yes, I'm the same advising as couta c25 "don't wait to buy, buy and wait "!

I have been watching properties on Idealista for 9 months now. What I have noticed recently (last 2 months approximately) is an increase in the offer and an increase in the frequency of discounts from 7-8 to 20%.

Everybody here seems to be believing the same things that realtors in Canada work very hard to pump, that immigration and foreign demand will keep prices up forever. It does not happen in Canada anymore (where prices have dropped since February even up to over 30% in some communities) and it will not happen here.

The main factor is the ongoing and predicted to continue increase in interest rates, which increase the cost of mortgages, which decreases the ability of people to purchase the houses they would have been able to purchase 1-2 years ago. This leads in turn to decrease in demand, because more people cannot afford as much house anymore.

This couples with increase in offer (which I have noticed) as owners begin to panic that if they wait they won't be able to get as much for their houses.

Put the two together - increased supply and decreased demand - and you have the perfect recipe for a decrease in prices, even with low construction rates, immigration, foreign buyers, etc.

Canada has had over 300,000 new immigrants last year (which is immensely more than Portugal for a country only 3-4 times more populous) but the prices are dropping all the same.

As people notice the increased offer and decreased demand as well as the increasing rates (which are likely to continue for quite some time from what I'm reading) they prefer to stay on the sidelines and watch, as I am doing now.

I may be ready to put an offer down for a house in a year or two, but there is no way I would ever buy at this time.

And I would never accept the opinion of a realtor. They seem the best informed but they are also biased when it comes to an opinion because they are the first to lose when the prices go down. So they will keep spreading the kind of nonsense I've seen here and everywhere despite the realities on the ground.

I just bought a T1 in Alvor last December for €127K. Apartments in the same condominium now are going for €150K+. That is a huge jump in 8 months. I have been watching Idealista as well as I was hoping to get a T2. The T2 apartment upstairs went up for sale and offer accepted at €192K. Cash. Nearly same size, main difference is an extra bedroom and an extra small balcony. I think Portuguese property prices are too high now, compared with the income ratio and compared with other countries. I am watching the Spanish market now, as I have noticed a large number of downward corrections in prices and more value for money.

Espaços Lisboa allows you to search for price drops and yes, there are definitely quite a couple of drops.

The property is worth whatever price you put on it, not the market or your neighbor. Is it going to make you happy and stay happy even after 20 years you own it:) In my opinion you should buy now and enjoy the moment. I bought a farm in Castelo Branco 2 years ago and moving there full time next spring from Canada. I had enough with Canadian winter. Canada is a good country but bad weather. Love Portugal!

I don’t understand the reasoning why property prices should come down anywhere in Europe, but least of all in Portugal, with the Golden Visa and NHR status driving so much immigration.
-@bettinakozlowski

One reason would be rising interest rates for morgages. Less people can afford buying.

@nz7521137 And another reason, particularly relevant in Portugal from what I've been reading, is that up to 80% of the mortgages are variable rate. When the prime rate goes up, guess what happens to your mortgage rate. Yes, it also goes up. Meaning that either your monthly payment goes up or the amount of interest you pay to the bank each month goes up and the amount going to your home equity goes down. Which means that a lot of people at some point won't be able to pay their mortgage anymore, being thus forced to dump their properties on the market at attractive (below-market) prices to have them sell fast. This usually depresses the rest of the market, and down it all goes.

And real estate markets are in the habit of moving rather fast on their way down, and very slow on their way up after that. In Canada it took almost 15 years for real estate to reach the previous prices after such drop in the early 90s.

So... buying two years ago is fine, nobody could have envisioned the rising rates we have now. Buying now is called "catching a falling knife". Don't try this at home.

I bought a place a couple weeks ago, and as far as I'm concerned it was one of the better decisions ever.  And I'm not even particularly wild about the house, though from a financial perspective I think it seems to be attractive and well built, A+ CE etc., and I think there's always a market for that kind of place in Portugal.  I'm not going to get rich buying and selling real estate at this rate, and I don't care.

I don’t understand the reasoning why property prices should come down anywhere in Europe, ...

In Portugal the reason would be that many loans are on variable interest rates and many owners might not be able to pay the loans. As a result the banks would take possession and sell as quickly as possible.

I don’t understand the reasoning why property prices should come down anywhere in Europe, ...

In Portugal the reason would be that many loans are on variable interest rates and many owners might not be able to pay the loans. As a result the banks would take possession and sell as quickly as possible.
-@nz7521137

completely agree.  I'm frtustrated at the rapid increase in costs since we've been here but i personally believe things will slow and/or contract in the next year or two...perhaps pretty significantly.

(these stats may be off...but should be directional based on several recent articles):

• I beleive something like 60% of the homes in Portugal have mortgages
• Of these, 90%+ are on variable-rate mortgages where the rates have been between 0.5% to 1%
• real wages in Portugal decreased nearly 5% just in the 1st half of 2022...i haven't seen the full year 2022 but given inflation continued to grow i'm sure real wages decreased further.
• based on a late 2022 report, if the 12-mo euribor rates got to 2% by the end of 2023, this would result in.an average 15% increase in monthly mortgage payments.Currently, 12-month euribor is already at over 3.5% which if we extrapolate that...would be about 40%+ increase! Not sure how sustainable that is. The rates may well continue to rise and make the impact even worse.
• An est 700,000+ homes are currently empty for one reason or another, An est 1.1 million are second homes or used for short-term rentals. The number of houses transacted in 2021 was around 165,000. 
• I think this creates a situation, where lack of cash and a credit crunch could create an environemnt when people stop being able to afford the debt and taxes these 2nd home require, they will start to sell and/or hand them back to the banks who may look to dump them.

i'm fearful for what this very well could do to the general population.

Of course...i could be way wrong.

@sdanders43

Well buying new is expensive but to buy second hand and then rebuilt it might be better. ***

@sdanders43 Hi,

On average, prices have dropped in 2023 and 1st Q 2024 (and in general after the end of the tax scheme for NHR), now they are stable. 

It depends on the type of property you are looking for.

Construction is underway in several towns in Central Portugal, so you can expect to find more condo apartments on sale next year.

@DavidOliveira

Hi Bavhna! I will do so

***

Hello everyone,

If you want to complain about misconduct by real estate agents, instead of complaining here and generalising to the whole country, just because you had a bad experience with an estate agent in particular, you can complain to IMPIC, which is the agency that deals with complaints about real estate agencies in Portugal.

Gov official website about how to make a complaint to IMPIC :

Complain here :

Please use your browser translator.

Good advise from JhonnyPT !

Excellent advise by @JohnnyPT - every country has their fair share of people who are looking to make a quick buck. Agreed - no need to generalise the country, we are very lucky to be able to live in this beautiful and friendly place.